A bombshell was dropped when it was announced that the Acadian Lines Fredericton terminal would be moving; not to the contested Woodside Lane location, but to Hubbard Rd., which is in the Fredericton Industrial Park. (News reports in the CBC and Daily Gleaner incorrectly reported that it was moving to the Vanier Industrial Park.)

Here is where it will be located:

View Larger Map and get directions via Fredericton Transit

As you can see, there isn’t a lot that’s near it. For the poor sap who has to wait several hours for a transfer, there isn’t a lot to do nearby. There isn’t even a Tim Hortons.

For some reason, they aren’t able to use the Woodside Lane location. They claim that they are still analyzing the cost of moving there. That doesn’t make sense as the cost of moving to the Hubbard Rd. location would be the same as moving to Woodside Lane. I suspect there may be more to the story that we aren’t hearing. This is probably a sign that they are looking for another location, possibly downtown. Our public officials are silent on this as they are probably in the middle of negotiations and they don’t want to sink any potential deals by announcing anything publicly.

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Here’s a quick summary about what’s going to happen to the train station. First off, here’s a rendering:

(borrowed from the press release)

They will be tearing down the back part of the station and replacing it with a single story 10,000 sqft liquor store which will be connected to the train station. Some might argue that they should have built something taller there, but there is still a lot of land available to be developed (the green):

The best news for tax payers is that it appears that JD Irving will be paying for the whole thing. The reality is that ANBL will be paying for the whole thing over 20 years.

This article from the CBC details the financial aspect and says that the rent will be $23.50/sqft/year with a 20 year lease. We’ll assume that $15 will be the base rent with $8.50 to be going to operating costs such as taxes and maintenance:

(13425sqft x $15 x 20yrs) = $4,027,500.

As the new section of the building appears to be a cheaply built square box, we’ll estimate it’s construction costs to be $750,000. So for a cost of $2,750,000 (assuming the previously quoted amount of $2M to fix the train station), they’ll get a total profit of:

($4,027,500 – $2,750,000) = $1,277,500

Unless my figures are drastically wrong, JD Irving isn’t doing this for charity.

In my previous calculations, I estimated (but didn’t explicitly say) that the rent would be around $16/sqft giving a net rent of $8. Unless someone leaks a copy of the lease, everything is just speculation. I also think that the $2M restoration figure may be a little inflated, it will probably cost a lot less. Don’t forget that ANBL will still have to pay for all of the interior in both parts of the building as well as heat & lights and probably snowploughing and lawn mowing and other maintenance. In the end, it’s a sweet deal for JDI.

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It has been announced that Fredericton’s York St. train station is going to be fixed up and turned into a liquor store: http://dailygleaner.canadaeast.com/rss/article/788653

A lot of people are celebrating, but there’s one line in the article that makes me wonder:

Officials from J.D. Irving said they continue to pursue a development on the site that will facilitate the restoration of the train station.

This is almost telling me that the restoration must be attached to another project. If correct, this means one of two things:

1. The announcement will only be of a tenant who will occupy the restored train station when they get around to restoring it.
2. A major development is planned for that parcel of land, so JD Irving is going to use the train station as a catalyst to get the project approved.

Essentially, options 1 and 2 are the same with the only difference being the timeline.

As that neighbourhood has a history of being difficult to develop, pitting the train station restoration supporters against the NIMBYs is a smart move on JD Irving’s part.

I am predicting that the NIMBY brigade will complain with the following arguments:

• “Liquor stores attract the wrong types of people. There will be drunks and hobos passed out in the bushes.”
• “What they are proposing won’t ‘fit in’ with the rest of the neighbourhood”
• “The new buildings won’t complement the look of the train station”
• “Digging up the old railbeds will contaminate the groundwater”

JD Irving won’t have to do anything to quell the protests, they’ll have an army of restoration activists who will be more than willing to defend the project online. Heads will explode for anyone who is both a restoration activist and anti-development.

The other question that will be raised is: Who will be paying for all of this? I suspect that due to sealed lease terms, we’ll never know. JD Irving will probably foot the cost up front, but as it will cost 4x the market value of the building to restore, they can recover that cost by charging 4x the normal rent. Maybe someone else will be able to provide more info on this.

As a reference, here’s an overhead shot of the site:

By using the zoning boundaries on the City of Fredericton’s mapping page, I was able to guess the size of the lot. As you can see, it’s pretty large. Hopefully they’ll be able to use that lot to its full potential. They could even connect Carleton St. to Beaverbrook Ct. to provide access to the rear of the property.

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Many cities have great examples of Art Deco buildings in their downtowns. This one was the best that I could find. I considered NBPower building, but all those air conditioners in the windows ruin the look. I have no idea whether it’s authentic Art Deco, or a recreation, but it reminds me of an old movie theatre.

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